Conspiracy theories – defined as “proposed explanation[s] of some historical events (or events) in terms of the significant causal agency of a relatively small groups of persons” (Keely, 1999: 116) have been the object of our society’s fascination for decades: from the national government to celebrities, it is clear how few can be exempt from the widespread social mania that surrounds these theories. They are controversial in nature, endlessly entertaining to those unaffected by their repercussions and are now pop culture staples. They are described by many as “pervasive”, meaning they our omnipresent within our social environment: it would appear that we would possess a “contemporary obsession with conspiracies” (Keely, 1999: 110).
That being said, it would appear that these are mere social phenomena that embody a kind of sociological frenzy, with no real purpose to their existence other than to spread false information regarding known events, individuals and institutions- because it is fundamentally amusing to create these alternative scenarios. However, we will find that this is not the case: conspiracy theories have much more to offer than one may initially believe, particularly in political research as numerous political scientists have attempted to distinguish unwarranted conspiracy theories – or UCTs – from those that can be rationally explained.
These have only recently been subject to attention on the part of political researchers, who have attempted to explain the difference between these two types of conspiracy theories. The question remains: how does a focus on these theories pertain to these researchers?
We will begin by first explaining how political researchers can gain more information regarding current events through the study of the conspiracy theories that resulted from these while analyzing how legitimate these theories were in the circumstances in which they were founded. In addition, we will find how researchers study the mass phenomena of unwarranted conspiracy theories as a way to determine the value of entertainment within society. Finally, we will see how researchers utilize conspiracy theories as a gateway into how public perception functions within their framework.
Conspiracy theories are notorious for their “wide range of wacky and eye roll inducing…claims” (Jimenez, 2019: 3). It appears these lack any sort of coherence or logic, that they exist purely to satisfy the fantasies of conspirators.
However, we will find that this is not the case. These theories have only recently been taken seriously, as beforehand they were merely perceived as unreasonable interpretations of reality by those incapable of facing such reality. Conspiracy theories have amassed significantly more attention from political researchers than they did previously due to their many useful qualities: many researchers have argued that these theories are much more telling of the current state of a society than we may initially realize.
Through this sociological occurrence, political researchers can gain information regarding political events: according to the academic John Naughton, “the reason we have conspiracy theories is that sometimes governments and organizations do conspire” (Wheeler, 2013: 3). What is most interesting though is the fact that these theories do not have to be factually correct for the researcher for them to be feasible: a conspiracy theory, whether it be warranted or unwarranted, can nevertheless offer insight into the course of an event and its impact on a group of individuals through its distortion within a conspiracy theory.
For the case of warranted conspiracy theories – justified through profoundly socio-political events that have deeply affected society large – we will find that these are fundamentally reactive in nature. This means that a specific occurrence is responsible for generating their existence, where certain known facts within the frame of an event have become contested by certain members of the population. A reason for their popularity has largely to do with how they blend a “unified explanation” with an “explanatory reach” (Keely, 1999: 119), meaning individuals can easily manipulate the facts they know and interpret them in a way where a completely different scenario is created based on the original event. Essentially, society has a say in the way certain socio-political incidents have affected them through the distortion of the facts involved within this event. A political scientist can interpret a conspiracy theory through the minds of the individuals affected.
An example of a warranted conspiracy theory that is factually correct can be found in the exceedingly popular case of Watergate, defined as the “interlocking political scandals” involving the American president Richard M. Nixon that “were revealed following the arrest of five burglars at Democratic National Committee (DNC) headquarters in the Watergate office-apartment” (Perlstein, 2000: 1). When the intruders were apprehended by the police in 1972, the news of this scandal had spread: “the arrest was reported in the next morning’s Washington Post” (Perlstein, 2000: 2).
The American media is largely responsible for popularizing this theory that conspired against the President, which the White House framed as “the obsession of a single “liberal” newspaper pursuing a vendetta against the president of the United States” (Perlstein, 2000: 5). The theory of a cover-up on the part of President Nixon was later proven to be true, and he was impeached soon after the fact. From this warranted conspiracy theory, political researchers can understand better both the course and the implications of this notorious political scandal: it reinforced a fundamental distrust on the part of the American population towards political institutions and personas- something we will delve into further later.
In addition, we will find how a conspiracy theory does not require any real truth or even any legitimacy for it to be considered useful to political researchers: scandals like Watergate have now set a precedent for a permanent state of distrust on the part of western societies towards political entities. Certain elements found during the Watergate era – ranging from “a diversionary cover story” to “intrinsic appeal to loyalists who were in denial about the scandal’s gravity” influence current affairs.
We can see how these “may help illuminate similar thinking” (Greenberg, 2017: 3) today regarding modern conspiracy theories involving political figures of the twenty-first century- notably the current American President Donald Trump, who “has been a particularly prolific purveyor of a wide array of conspiracy theories” (Jimenez, 2019: 4). The warranted ones are often a response to his justified accusations of corruption and obstruction of justice.
However, what is all the more interesting are the unwarranted conspiracy theories regarding this titular political figure- suggestions as improbable as him being replaced by a robot controlled by the Republican Party (which theorists have justified through his constant misuse of the English language) to further advance the conservative agenda have surfaced across the internet.
Political researchers can interpret this wide array of differing conspiracy theories as a response to a prolonged suspicion the general population enharbours towards political entities. It seems even unwarranted theories would possess legitimacy if they resulted from ongoing historical tensions, which is useful to political research.
However, we will find that UCTs do not possess as much value as their warranted counterparts: although some of them are a culmination of past socio-political events, others exist purely for the sake of entertainment, which is quite a pertinent clause in the twenty-first century.
It becomes apparent how conspiracy theories today are perceived by the general public as a form of entertainment: we enjoy “probing beneath the surface of the facts of the case as they have been presented in the mainstream media” as we find entertainment in temporarily suspending our idea of what is considered factually correct: a world where “all is not as we have been led to believe” (Keely, 1999: 115) is vastly more interesting than a world in which we understand everything. Mystery allows for us to daydream, to let our imagination run wild as we visualize an endless amount of possibilities.
Much has changed since the Watergate era, and we can attribute conspiracy theories’ popularity today to one modern invention that has made the spread of information an easy task: the internet. Through this medium is social media born, which has become a bedrock for these unwarranted theories to thrive upon: this is largely due to their controversial nature as they constitute an “explanation that runs counter to some received, official, or "obvious" account” (Keely, 1999: 116-7). If we have understood anything about the internet, it is that controversy attracts people’s attention, which is what brings individuals to express themselves on social media platforms to begin with.
Conspiracy theories are so widely utilized because “they offer wonderfully unified accounts of all the data at hand” including “overlooked, errant data” (Keely, 1999: 119). Political researchers can study this sociological phenomenon that takes place on social media and can understand how conspiracy theories bring people together in a communal way. The danger with UCTs comes with how they find correlations between events that have seemingly no relation with one another purely for the sake of developing a conspiracy; without any real purpose to their creation (Goodenough, 2005). If conspiracy theories attract a lot of attention because of their entertainment value, then we can understand how individuals may create them with the goal of amassing popularity.
An example of this can be found within an unlikely political figure- Donald Trump. He is considered “unlikely” because ironically-enough, he has been the object of many conspiracy theories since his presidency. However, Trump is above all a public persona- from businessman to reality TV star, he has been in the public eye for decades and is notorious for his controversial opinions and obnoxious antics, both on and off screen. To maintain this fame he has created for himself, he creates conspiracy theories that are controversial enough to receive public attention.
Examples of this can be found both prior and during his presidency. In 2011 he “latched on to the discredited notion that President Barack Obama was born in Kenya” (Cook, 2019: 7). As a way of deflecting the conspiracy theories linking himself to Jeffrey Epstein’s death, Trump suggested that Epstein’s child sex trafficking scandal was linked to “to former President Bill Clinton” (Chan, 2019: 4) purely on the basis that they were both friends.
Political researchers can see the intrinsic link between prominent figures and conspiracy theories as a result of the influence of fame culture. UCTs are a byproduct of society’s constant demand for entertainment, which is then fulfilled by these celebrities as an attempt of asserting themselves in the public eye.
While it would appear as though conspiracy theories in modern times exist for the pleasure of individuals who enjoy these alternative means of information for their own amusement, we will find that political researchers can gain much knowledge regarding public perception through these theories; as they are very telling of the state of a society.
We have established previously how conspiracy theories are fundamentally sociological phenomena: warranted conspiracy theories are a byproduct of a traumatic socio-political events, whereas UCTs are either the byproduct of a long-standing socio-political tension that has prevailed through history or they are the byproduct of a culture’s obsession with alternative theories. Political researchers studying these can observe how these bind individuals together as they unite them under one belief system: conspiracy theories are profoundly societal and are indicative of a certain sentiment adopted by a group of individuals. What is unique about these theories is their timelessness: they have prevailed through history and the sentiments deeply embedded within them still exist within modern societies of the twenty-first century.
Furthermore, political researchers can study this in order to better understand how public perception has changed over the course of decades regarding either a particular event or a certain socio-political opinion. In terms of an event, we will find that there are countless patterns that have emerged of tumultuous events that have scarred a nation to the point where conspiracy theories were used as a way to cope with the trauma a society had experienced. The best example of this can be found within 9/11: this terrorist attack has permanently cemented American society in a state of fear, paranoia and distrust towards foreign entities.
Political researchers can make sense of such a drastically traumatic event that still shapes politics and international relations today by studying the theories related to this drastic event. An example of this can be seen in the attempt of rationalization on the part of some theorists that television shows had predicted 9/11- as seen in the film Back to the Future which supposedly “contains a coded message warning of the 9/11 attacks” (Lafrance, 2015: 2). According to the political scientist Joseph Uscinski, there is a “psychological component that underlies” (Lafrance, 2015: 5) within the foundation of these theories; something which is feasible within the frame of political research.
As for sentiment, we will find how conspiracy theories are indicative of certain mindsets that have both prevailed and shifted over time. Seeing as these theories enharbour a certain timelessness, political researchers can analyze the development of socio-political opinions over the course of decades through the expression of the conspiracies that have emerged. Researchers can study the transformation of entire societies through this medium. An example of a conspiracy theory expressing a sentiment is the Dreyfus affair, where “a young artillery officer of Jewish extraction, Alfred Dreyfus, was wrongly convicted in 1894 of treason” (Wheeler, 2013: 5) as he was used as a scapegoat to cover for one of the other gentile officials.
During that year was when the conspiracy theory was founded that Dreyfus had not committed the crime, but rather that antisemitic army officials pigeonholed him to fulfill their discriminatory agendas. Once this circulated due to the press, French society became split between those who supported Dreyfus’ innocence and those who contested it. Europe has had an extensive history of antisemitism, so to see hundreds of thousands of French individuals mobilized under the cause of a Jewish man through this conspiracy theory is very telling of the progression of French society’s mindset regarding minority groups. Consequently, political researchers can study a society’s shift in socio-political behavior through conspiracy theories: they are incredibly useful tools of analysis for public opinion.
We may conclude by affirming the utility conspiracy theories possess within political research, as researchers can obtain information regarding political events, celebrity culture and public sentiment; seeing as these theories are often byproducts of these three elements. Conspiracies are fundamentally social occurrences; they exist purely through the imagination and expression of individuals who believe that historical facts could have more to them than meets the eye. Furthermore, what distinguishes warranted and unwarranted conspiracy theories has largely to do with their justification: a warranted theory has been provoked by an event or a sentiment, whereas this is not necessarily the case for unwarranted theories, which can merely exist for the sake of entertaining a society that obsesses over conspiracies, although this is not always the case. It is the objective of political researchers to differentiate these elements from one another, to categorize the theories that are telling of a society’s current state from those who enharbour a more pointless existence.
Bibliography
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